S.2.4 Validation Activities for Scenario 2 (case Ferrara)

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  • D6.4 S1.4

    Validation activities for Scenario 2

    case Ferrara

  • Module 1:Analysis of historical series of consumption and weather data

  • 1.1.a - Daily profiles

    Study performed on two buildings, both served by district heating:

    Scuole Poledrelli (see DailyProfiles_Poledrelli.pptx)

    Museo di Storia Naturale (see DailyProfiles_MuseoStoriaNaturale.pptx)

    Four quantities plotted:

    measured consumption (red line)

    measured external temperature (blue line)

    required periods of comfort (unshaded surfaces)

    deduced heating system turn on time

    DailyProfiles_Poledrelli.pptxDailyProfiles_MuseoStoriaNaturale.pptx

  • 1.1.b - Daily profiles

    Scuole Poledrelli:

    Heating system usually off in the weekend

    Heating turn on is anticipated on Mondays and Tuesdays

    Museo di Storia Naturale

    Usually on all days

    very regular turn on/of interval

    General remarks

    Temperature profile sometimes is unrealistic or incomplete

    As expected consumption trends are inversely proportional to external temperature, with a delay due to thermal inertia.

    Scuole Poledrelli have a higher consumption, but a correct comparison should be done after normalization with heated surface.

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    Scuole Poledrelli Museo di Storia Naturale

    Marted 13/01

    Mercoled 14/01

  • 1.2 - Seasonal profiles

    Scuole Poledrelli:

    weekly pattern is clearly visible, with the consumption peaks on Mondays and Tuesdays

    this kind of plot triggers the question, is turning turn off the heating system during weekends more efficient than just living it on?

    the question can be evaluated by measuring and comparing the surface of the "Monday peaks" with that of the "weekend valleys"

    comparison of consumption and temperature curves show

    an inverse proportion on the long term trends

    the possible effect of thermal inertia in the progressive smoothing of the "Monday peak" from one week to the following.

    Museo di Storia Naturale:

    Initial peak is unrealistic, consumption scale is different with respect with Scuole Poledrelli

    clear weekly pattern is absent, even if a week-size signal seems to be present, especially on the left part of the curve

    comparison of consumption and temperature curves show an inverse proportion on the long term trends

  • Scuole Poledrelli

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    Temperatura Consumi

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    Temperatura Consumi

    Museo di Storia Naturale

  • Gas consumption data are measured with optical reader attached to the analogic gas meters:

    Data is gathered via radio in local concentrators that deliver them via GPRS to the pilot head-end server.

    Reading frequency is hourly but often the reading fails and the measure is postpones to the following hour.

    This is what causes the measurement jumps in the historical series.

    We have analysed consumption data for one pilot building served by gas heating to verify the quality of data.

    Palazzina Energia/Patrimonio:

    Impact of measurement jumps is heavy, to the point that data is scarcely useful

    Gas consumption includes also hot water preparation, as can be derived from the non-null consumption values outside of the heating season.

    1.3 - Gas consumption profiles

  • Ufficio Energia/Patrimonio:

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    Sabato 10/01

  • Module 2:Test of suggestion service

  • The aim of this activity is to test the Heating System Suggestion service on the same two pilot buildings in Ferrara:

    - Scuole Elementari Poledrelli

    - Museo di Storia Naturale

    The Suggestion service normally takes in input the forecasted weather condition for the following day.

    However, in order to perform a test on a long baseline, for the test the suggestion service was run on an historical series of past observed data during part of the last winter season.

    2.1 - The Suggestion service

  • The suggestion service is designed to activate on days with out-of-the-average weather.

    It has been determined that on 90% of cases the absolute value of the difference between the average temperature of one day and the average temperature of the preceding day fall within 3C for Ferrara. Days that fall outside this value are considered out-of the average.

    The first plot shows the profiles of the following variables:

    (temperatures on the left axis, temperature difference on the right axis)

    Maximum measured daily outside temperature (red line)

    Average measured daily outside temperature (green line)

    Minimum measured daily outside temperature (blue line)

    Out-of-the-average days (red dots)

    The second plot shows the distribution of the absolute value of difference between temperature averages. The tail of the distribution is highlighted and it represents the numerosity of the out-of-the-average days.

    2.2 - Service triggering

  • Identifying out-of-the-average days:

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    T Min T Max T Media Differenza

    Profilo di T min, max e media nellanno 2015

    I giorni anomali sono quelli che presentano un T > 3 tra due date continue di riferimento

  • Distribution of absolute values of daily average temperature differences:

    Distribuzione T

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    distribution cumulative

    Secondo la curva cumulativa nel periodo di riferimento circa il 18 % dei giorni hanno un T > 3Questi vengono analizzati al fine di verificare lattendibilit del servizio di suggestion, come segue :

  • The Simulation has then been run on a sub-portion of the span of the previous plot.

    The outcome is shown in the following slide for both pilot buildings,:

    Scuole Poledrelli on the left and

    Museo di Storia Naturale on the right.

    The top plots describe the heating system turn-on phase:

    (hours on the left axis, temperatures on the right axis)

    Maximum measured daily outside temperature (red line)

    Minimum measured daily outside temperature (blue line)

    Suggested turn-on time (red triangles)

    Measured turn-on time (green triangles)

    Bottom plots describe the heating system shutting down:

    Suggested shutting-down time (red diamonds)

    Measured shutting-down time (green diamonds)

    2.3 - Suggested turn on/off times

  • Suggestion:

    Poledrelli :

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    -10

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