Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014

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Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014 Building Evidence: 50 Shades of black and white: are statistics, surveys and research the new sexy in uncertain times?

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  • 1. What would it take to get you into the central city? Creating agile evidence for rebuild decision-makers Seismic & the City 2014 Dr Vivienne Ivory Opus Research

2. How to sustain Christchurch over the recovery phase? How can research inform the recovery phase? Virtual experiment. Natural experiment Its going to take a while, so 3. Virtual experiment faced with a scenario of moving to the central city, what is most important to your quality of life? Neighbourhood priorities? Dwelling priorities? Would they stay? Trying something different (part 1) 4. Neighbourhood priorities?: what is most important to your quality of life? Trying something different (part 1) 5. Dwelling priorities?: what is most important to your quality of life? Trying something different (part 1) Change in dwelling options over rebuild Valueselected(1-5) Increasingly rebuilt central city 6. Would they choose to stay? Response to the virtual experiment 7. Content based on current evidence: quality of life, healthy neighbourhoods, mobility patterns Needs havent changed Willing to try alternatives? What factors could affect uptake? Surprised? Not really 8. Household diversity 9. Affordability advantage Final stage selected by dwelling cost experience 10. Participants responded with an urban lifestyle Local travel Reduced car trips Everyday needs met locally (food, recreation, socialising) Lifestyle advantage 11. Balancing dwelling and neighbourhood features Changes in satisfaction with living environment over rebuild stages Satisfaction (10=very satisfied) Increasingly rebuilt central city 12. Natural experiment Trying something different (part 2) 13. Changing where business takes place 14. Changing where business takes place 15. Changing where business takes place 16. Changing where business takes place 17. Changing where business takes place 18. Changing what business takes place here 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Numberofbusinessunits Russley: trends for business units 2000-2013 Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Trade Financial and Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Professional, Scienti fic and Technical Services 19. Changing what business takes place here 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Numberofbusinessunits Phillipstown: trends for business units 2000-2013 Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Trade Financial and Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Professional, Scienti fic and Technical Services 20. Business continuity > adaption But now? normal location factors??? Broadband and other business infrastructure Personal amenity value family & friends, attractive environments, social scene Accessibility for employees, trade Agglomeration (dependent on sector, size of city, etc) A surprising response? 21. How much adaptability can business & the city take? Implications for business in novel settings? And for their hosting neighbourhoods? Will location matter over the recovery? 22. Trends over time Flows within the city and beyond Dynamics of economic recovery: 23. What needs to be put in place now for the future vision Maintaining business & households in atypical environments To be continued How can Christchurch meet those needs as the city keeps changing? Neighbourhood infrastructure Residential sector Local commercial sector

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