Synthesis report 3 provinces

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1. 2 MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT VIET NAM INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY, HYDROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY REPORT SUPPORT TO IMPROVE CAPACITY TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE…

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1. 2 MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT VIET NAM INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY, HYDROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY REPORT SUPPORT TO IMPROVE CAPACITY TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN PROVINCES 2013 2. 2 CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................3 2 SPECIFIC ACTIVITIES .......................................................................................3 2.1 DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS.......3 2.1.1 Climate change scenarios for Binh Dinh .......................................................4 2.1.1.1 Observed climate changes in Binh Dinh in recent decades.................4 2.1.1.2 Climate change scenario for Bình Định...............................................6 2.1.2 Climate change scenario for Bình Thuận.......................................................7 2.1.2.1 Observed climate changes in Binh Thuan in recent decades...............7 2.1.2.2 Climate change scenario for Bình Thuận ............................................9 2.1.3 Climate change scenario for Cần Thơ..........................................................11 2.1.3.1 Observed climate changes in Can Tho in recent decades..................11 2.1.3.2 Climate change scenario for Cần Thơ ...............................................13 2.2 ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANS OF THE PROVINCE .................15 2.2.1 Assessment of impacts and risks of climate change in Binh Dinh ..............15 2.2.2 Assessment of impacts and risks of climate change on Binh Thuan province........................................................................................................19 2.2.3 Assessment of the impact of climate change and sea level rise on socio-economic development plan in Can Tho............................................24 2.3 IDENTIFICATION OF ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR THE PROVINCES ............27 2.3.1 The adaptation measures to Binh Dinh........................................................28 2.3.2 The adaptation measures for Binh Thuan ....................................................30 2.3.3 The adaptation measures to Can Tho...........................................................32 2.4 CASE STUDY IN THE DISTRICT ........................................................................34 2.4.1 Tây Sơn district [6] ......................................................................................35 2.4.2 Phú Quý Island district [3]...........................................................................36 3 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................37 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................40 3. 3 1 INTRODUCTION The project " Strengthening National Capacities to respond to Climate Change in Viet Nam, reducing vulnerability and controlling GHG emissions " sponsored by UNDP for Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment is assigned to coordinate with line ministries, sectors and localities to implement the project. The project aims to strengthen the institutional capacity and policies on climate change, to support the implementation of the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change (NTPRCC) from central to local levels. Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho are the three provinces / cities supported by the project with activities to strengthen capacity to respond to climate change, including research on the assessment of climate change impacts over various time frames, including extreme events for each area. The project developed high resolution climate change scenarios for the three provinces of Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho, assessments of climate change impacts, identification and selection of adaptation measures, and developed an Action Plan to respond to climate change. Numerous consulting activities for economic sectors within socio-economic development processes and areas susceptible to climate change have been implemented to propose measures for adaptation to climate change in Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho City, Tay Son district (Binh Dinh) and Phu Quy island (Binh Thuan). Detailed climate change scenarios for local areas have been developed; the pressures and challenges caused by climate change at local level have been analyzed to propose adaptation measures such as water resource management in Binh Thuan, groundwater management in Phu Quy island, urban planning adjustment for An Binh Ward, Ninh Kieu District, Can Tho City etc. The results from the consultations will provide important information to help scientists better understand local issues, advantages and challenges in implementing climate change adaptation activities. Capturing information and lessons learned from research are essential to support local activities. Parallel to the research and consultation, the project has implemented various training courses and seminars to raise awareness, research skills for provincial staff. This report outlines the major results of the project’s activities in the three provinces. 2 SPECIFIC ACTIVITIES 2.1 Development of climate change and sea level rise scenarios Climate change scenarios are an important part of climate change study. Climate change scenarios are the basis for assessing climate change impacts on natural systems and socio-economic development processes, to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. Climate change scenarios are regarded as reliable and simple tools to project future climate, based on a set of climatic processes, and to understand the consequences caused by human-induced climate change; they are usually used as inputs for impact assessment models1. Vietnam has developed many climate change scenarios, which consequently have been applied in studies and implementations of activities to respond to climate change. Climate change scenarios for Vietnam were first developed in 1994 in a research in the 1 IPCC (2007), The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press 4. 4 Asia - Vietnam component – by the Asian Development Bank. In 2003, the first Vietnam National Communication to the UNFCCC2 updated and announced the development of climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam. The report "Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam" is the most comprehensive script based on scientific research and practices which can be applied to the implementation of the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change. The report has been mandated to the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment to develop, update and announce scenarios in 2009 and 20123. Two versions have been completed with support from UNDP, and in cooperation with the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office, CLIMSystem of New Zealand and a number of other organizations. Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho are the three provinces supported by the project to develop climate change adaptation activities, including development of climate change scenarios as a priority. Within the project framework, the project has supported and provided line departments in the provinces of Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho with the development of detailed "climate change scenarios" for each province to provide the scientific basis for assessing impacts and vulnerability caused by climate change at provincial level. 2.1.1 Climate change scenarios for Binh Dinh 2.1.1.1 Observed climate changes in Binh Dinh in recent decades a) Temperature According to data analysis, in Binh Dinh, temperature changes, both absolute values and anomaly reached the highest increase in winter while the increase is lower in summer; which makes the overall change during the whole year not significant. In the 2 Viet Nam National Initial communication to UNFCCC, 2003 3 Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam, 2009 and 2012 5. 5 past 50 years, the average temperature in January increased about 0.8oC, in July approximately 0,65oC and annual average increase 0.7oC. In Binh Dinh, both highest maximum temperature and lowest minimum temperature increased in the past 50 years. Similarly, the number of hot days (>35oC) also increased. The number of days with highest maximum temperature (Tx) more than 35oC in the decade of 1978 to 1987 was 45.9 days; this increased to 61.4 days in the next decade and 53.4 days in the decade of 1998-2007. Figure 1. The trend of annual mean temperature anomaly observed in Quy Nhon station b) Precipitation In Binh Dinh, in the last 50 years, dry season rainfall increased about 6.7% / decade; the rainy season precipitation tends to increase with about 5.6% / decade while the overall annual rainfall increased by 5.8% / decade. The increase of rainfall appeared to be fairly stable. The number of days with heavy rainfall increased in recent decades, but not much. The number of days with rainfall above 50mm during the decade of 1978 to 1987 was 9.1 days; it slightly increased in the decades of 1988 to 1997 and 1998-2007 with an average of 11 days. The highest and the 5-day rainfall showed no significant change. Figure 2. Number of days with rainfall more than 50mm c) Sea level rise Trung bình 9,1 (1978 – 1987) Trung bình 11,0 (1998 – 2007) Trung bình 9,3 (1988 – 1997) 6. 6 From the results of data analysis at Quy Nhon station, sea level in Binh Dinh province tends to increase at a rate of 2.5 mm / year over the past decade; this is slower than the average sea level rise across coastal Vietnam [22]. d) Tropical cyclones and low pressure From 1961 to 2007, there were a total of 38 tropical cyclones affecting Binh Dinh provinces, including 13 tropical depression and 25 tropical cyclones. On average, each decade has about 8 tropical cyclone strikes affecting Binh Dinh. The most serious year experienced 4 strikes (1995). 2.1.1.2 Climate change scenarios for Binh Dinh a) Temperature According to the findings of the climate change and sea scenarios: the average air temperature in Binh Dinh province in the 21st century tends to increase with a higher degree from March to May compared to other periods of the year; the lowest rise will be from June to August. By the mid-21st century, the average temperature rise according to high emission scenario (A2), medium emission scenario (B2) and low emission scenario (B1) will be 1.3oC, 1.2oC and 1.1oC respectively. By the end of the 21st century, the increase of the average temperature according to the scenarios will be 2.9oC, 2.3oC and 1.5oC. Geographically, the southwest region of Binh Dinh has a higher increase than the east and northeast. [22]. Figure 3. The increase in the average temperature in the mid-21st century compared to the period 1980 to 1999 in Binh Dinh with medium emissions scenario (B2) Figure 4. The change in annual rainfall in mid- 21st century compared to the period 1980 to 1999 in Binh Dinh with medium emissions scenario (B2) Similar to the average temperature, the highest maximum and the lowest minimum temperature tend to increase with the highest rate in the summer (June to August) while the lowest rate of increase is in the winter (December - February). In the mid-21st century, the increase will be 1.7oC and 2.7oC by the end of the century. b) Rainfall Study results on rainfall changes in dry season, rainy season and annually 7. 7 accordingly to scenarios show a decrease in dry season and an increase in the rainy season; the increase in the rainy season appears to be higher than the decrease in the dry season. In the mid-21st century, rainfall increase based on the high emissions scenario will be 3.8%, 3.6% with the medium emission scenario and 3.4% with the low emission scenario. By the end of the century, the rainfall increase will be 8.9%, 7.0% and 4.6% respectively for the scenarios. Annual rainfall in Binh Dinh decreases from the east to the west. In the mid-21st century, the districts of An Lao, Hoai Nhon, Phu My, Phu Cat, An Nhon, Tuy Phuoc and Quy Nhon city in the east will have a rainfall increase from 3.5 to 4%. Vinh Thach district and An Lao, Hoai An, Tay Son, Van Canh districts in the west will have an increase of 2.5 to 3%. Other areas of the province will have an increase from 3 to 3.5%. Maximum daily and 5-day rainfall in most areas of Binh Dinh area will increase quite significantly, from 75 to 100%. c) Sea level rise The highest rise of sea level due to climate change in 2100 in Binh Dinh will be about 83-97 cm. In the first 50 years of 21st century, the sea level will rise at a slower rate than the last 50 years4. 2.1.2 Climate change scenarios for Binh Thuan 2.1.2.1 Observed climate changes in Binh Thuan in recent decades a) Temperature In Binh Thuan, the degree of temperature changes, both absolute values and anomaly are relatively high in winter and less in summer and the degree of change annually is not much. January average temperature (increased about 0.2oC per decade) tends to increase faster than the average temperature in July (increased about 0.1oC per decade). The average temperature of Phu Quy island tends to increase in the last 3 decades and the rate of change observed at the island station is similar to that of Phan Thiet station. In the past 35 years, both average high and average low temperature increased. There are differences in the degree of increase; the lowest minimum temperature appeared to increase faster, about 0.3oC per decade compared to 0.1 to 0.2oC per decade. The number of days with pleasant weather (T 50 cm took up to nearly 76% of city area and with a depth > 1m up to 39.4%. According to research findings, about 800km of roads were flooded, which accounts for about 98% of the total length of the roads in Can Tho during this historic flood in the year 2000. Impacts of climate change on flooding in Can Tho were considered in an overall assessment of climate change impacts in the entire Mekong Delta. An overall assessment should consider the whole system from the upstream water volume to sea level rise with changes in rainfall and water demand in the region under climate change impacts. The plan includes the following options: 1. The base period: Description of the historical flood events in 2000 on the system, study results obtained by this method were used as a basis for comparison with the results of other options. 2. Option F1: Description of changes in flood in the system with the 2000 flood in Kratie and sea level rise of 15 cm; 3. Option F2: Description of changes in flood in the system with the 2000 flood in Kratie and sea level rise of 26 cm; 4. Option F3: Description of changes in flood in the system with the 2000 flood in Kratie and sea level rise of 32 cm; 5. Option F4: Description of changes in flood in the system with the 2000 flood in Kratie and sea level rise of 50 cm; 6. Option F5: Description of changes in flood in the system with the 2000 flood in Kratie and sea level rise of 70 cm; 25. 25 Figure 16. Map of flooding risk in Can Tho city with 0.5 m sea level rise scenarios 7. Option F6: Description of changes in flood in the system with the 2000 flood in Kratie and sea level rise of 100 cm. Isis, a hydrodynamic model, and topographic maps prepared by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, developed in 2009 are used for the assessment. When such abrupt and extreme events occur as the flood similar to the year 2000, Can Tho city can be inundated up to 90-96% of the whole city area with a depth of 0.5 m at the end of this century. Areas with a higher depth of flood, more than 1m, can be around 67-80% of the city area. The wards of Hung Loi, Xuan Khanh, An Lac, An Khu, Tan An, An Hoi, An Cu, Cai Khe of Ninh Kieu district and the wards of Thanh Hung, Hung Phu of Cai Rang district have high elevation and may not be flooded in full, most of the other districts in Can Tho city will be affected by severe flooding and sea level rise. The inundated area from flooding due to sea level rise will be increasing according to climate change scenarios. As sea levels rise to 70cm, the flooded area with a depth> 0.5 m will be 1266 km2 (395 km2 increase compared to the baseline period) and the flooded area with a depth > 1 m will be 934 km2 (691 km2 increase). With rising sea levels of 100cm, flood areas with a depth > 0.5m will be 1336 km2 (465 km2 increase) and the flooded area with a depth > 1 m will be 1224 km2 (981 km2 increase). Drought: Along with floods, drought tends to increase due to a combination of problems such as increase of evaporation, temperature and reduced rainfall during the dry season. The possibility of drought in Can Tho is also rapidly increasing with increasing salinity which makes it more difficult for the water supply for production and daily life in many areas. Using matrix methods and data analysis for assessment from ArcGIS software, based on the combined results of calculation of flooding due to climate change and sea level rise scenarios and socio-economic development of Can Tho city in 2020, the impact of climate change on some areas and sectors are calculated as follows. Impact on agriculture: an unusual distribution of rainfall during the year will be a larger obstacle to rice production than rainfall level because they can cause droughts or local flooding. Combined with higher rainfall, floods can cause serious damage to winter or late summer-autumn crops. In Can Tho, the area for spring crop is the largest cultivation area, therefore the damages are also higher than for summer and autumn- winter crops. The loss of yield is estimated at 190,496 tonnes. In particular, Vinh Thanh district will be most affected with a flooded area during the three crops that can be up to 18,957.28 ha, accounting for about 35% of the total area of cultivated land. According to 26. 26 estimates, the decline of rice production caused by sea level rise by 2020 will be around 267,764 tonnes. Aquaculture: in Can Tho city, the production model is mainly low-water aquaculture with a depth of 0.8 to 1.0 m, which will be strongly affected when temperature increases, causing losses of yield and quality of seafood. Flooding will cause loss of fish productivity, especially in fish and shrimp farm and damages to low embankments. If there are no embankments, sea level rise will seriously affect the aquaculture activities, or they even will be total lost. Vinh Thanh district will suffer the most on aquaculture with 97% of the farm area flooded; Phong Dien district follows with 82%. Infrastructure: due to the topography (low-lying area) combined with a dense river system infrastructure; especially the road system is at risk of major flooding. With sea level rise scenarios in 2020 of 9cm, combined with the historic flood of the year 2000, the flooded transport system in Can Tho will be more than 90% in all districts with most serious floods in Thoi Lai, Co Do and Phong Dien districts. Vulnerability Assessment The approach to assess vulnerability to climate change is the general approach of the IPCC framework to assess the impact of climate change on natural systems and society based on the following information: (i) climate change and sea level rise scenarios for the study area, (ii) impact of climate change on natural systems and the potential impact on the social system of the study area, (iii) assessment of climate change impacts, vulnerability assessment and risk levels due to climate change and identification of adaptation measures. The vulnerability assessment to climate change is conducted in key areas of Can Tho city, including residential areas, agricultural production, industrial and services facilities, environmental and sanitation infrastructure with climate change scenario for 2020 and 2050. The assessment used vulnerability indicators for socio-economic and environmental conditions of the area. The results are as follows: a) The 2020 scenario The level of damages caused by flooding in the residential districts of Ninh Kieu and Thot Not is the highest. For planned agriculture and aquaculture areas, Vinh Thanh and Co Do districts were rated at the highest level of vulnerability. In the industrial sector, the highest level of vulnerability was identified for Thot Not district while the infrastructure system (electrical system, roads, dikes, canals) of O Mon, Vinh Thanh, Co Do, Thoi Lai districts is the most vulnerable target. For environmental sanitation, O Mon, Co Do, Thoi Lai and Vinh Thanh districts are most affected by flooding. Overall, vulnerability assessment for the five sectors shows that Co Do, Vinh Thanh and Thoi Lai districts are the three areas with the highest level of vulnerability, followed by Thot Not and O Mon districts. 27. 27 b) The 2050 scenario With a sea level rise of 32 cm, flooding in Can Tho city changes significantly from the 2000 flooding scenario. The flooded area will extend toward Cai Rang, Ninh Kieu, Binh Thuy and Phong Dien district while other districts will be entirely inundated. Evaluation results show that the level of vulnerability of the Ninh Kieu district population is the highest, followed by Thot Not district. For the agricultural sector, the rice cultivation and aquaculture area of Vinh Thanh and Co Do districts have the highest level of vulnerability. The industrial parks of Thot Not districts are most exposed to flooding risks, followed by Cai Rang district. O Mon, Vinh Thanh, Co Do and Thoi Lai districts have the highest level of vulnerability in infrastructure. Co Do, Thoi Lai, and Vinh Thanh districts have highest level of vulnerability in environmental sanitation. Overall, vulnerability assessment for five sectors shows that Co Do, Thoi Lai, Vinh Thanh and Thot Not districts are most vulnerable, followed by O Mon and Phong Dien districts. A vulnerability map allows comparing the levels of vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise between districts and between the research areas of Can Tho and provides important information to determine response measures for each sector in each region to ensure sustainable socio-economic development under potential impacts of climate change. The result of this evaluation is important information for identification and selection of adaptation measures in accordance with provincial policy development, integration into provincial planning, and development of strategies to ensure effective response to climate change. 2.3 Identification of adaptation measures for the provinces To respond effectively to climate change, it is necessary to assess the impact and risks of climate change, consider plans of socio-economic development under changing climate conditions, therefore proposing appropriate solutions for response to climate change and to incorporate them into development plans. The goal of adaptation is to enhance adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability to loss and damage from climate change impacts, contribute to the maintenance of social and economic activities for Figure 17. Vulnerability flooding map in Can Tho 28. 28 sustainable development. Identified adaptation measures are implemented based on the results of climate change impact assessment. The level of risk caused by the impact, capacity of the target groups to adapt to the risks and the degree of vulnerability of the target are input information for identification of adaptation measures. Identification and selection of adaptation measures are implemented according to the steps from assessing adaptation need, developing criteria for selection of adaptive measures, proposed adaptation measures and finally evaluation of priority measures [26] to incorporate into socio-economic development plan and response plan for the province / sector. As mentioned above, although with differences in physical characteristics and socio-economic conditions, all provinces are seriously affected by climate change. There are also differences in impacts on people’s lives, livelihoods and on socio-economic development in each province due to different characteristics of each province. Based on the information from climate change scenarios and impact assessments on the sectors and areas and the results of risk assessment and vulnerability to climate change for the province, this study proposed a number of adaptation measures in order to advise on the integration between local development plans and planning for prevention, mitigation, and adaptation to climate change. 2.3.1 The adaptation measures to Binh Dinh Binh Dinh Province is gradually developing and implementing its action plan to respond to climate change, proposing and implementing pilot projects to cope with impacts of change climate. From the studies to assess impacts of climate change and sea level rise on economic sectors and areas of Binh Dinh based on the provincial master plan for socio-economic development, this research has identified the sectors highly vulnerable to climate change impacts in Binh Dinh. For each sector, the research identified and selected adaptation measures within the time frame of the master plan for socio-economic development. Agriculture: for agricultural crops and livestock, short to medium to long term measures were considered, including technical and non-technical solutions. Notable measures include reviewing and planning of agricultural production areas based on changes in climatic conditions in different ecological zones. Measures for protection and development of fisheries and environmental protection are: to develop aquacultural production coupled with ecosystem restoration, protection of the environment and fisheries resources. Other measures include the implementation of mangrove restoration and protection of ecosystems across Thi Nai lagoon, De Gi lagoon and Hoai Nhon estuaries. Natural resources and the environment: The measures were proposed for water, land, ecology, biodiversity, and forest resources, including short to medium to long term measures. Measures include: development of planning for exploitation, utilization, management and protection of groundwater and surface water in the context of policies for water resources protection in the basin by the Government and to integrate with climate change adaptation; development and improvement of integrated water resources management in the basin to meet the needs of water users; developing and completing mechanisms for IRWM at basin level to meet the needs of water users. Medical care and public health: measures include short to medium to long term measures such as improvement of technology, appropriate equipment, control system for diseases taking into account changes in climatic conditions, especially in the aftermath of natural disasters, development of response plans in case of epidemic 29. 29 diseases from the outside, control and quarantine plan for diseases which can spread in changing climate conditions. Energy, construction and transport: measures are both structural and non- structural solutions, including promoting linkages between concentrated construction material provision areas to processing plants in order to support investment to upgrade infrastructure; control raw material prices for the concentrated construction material provision areas which are expected to experience the impacts of climate change; review and adjust plans for industrial parks development to cope with climate change impacts; particularly enhancement of prevention capacity to the impacts of flooding and flash floods. In energy sectors, measures are to improve efficiency and conservation of energy, exploitation and use of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind etc. These measures are regarded as priority solutions for the energy sector. In the tourism sector: measures are both short and long-term solutions with structural and non- structural processes including protection, restoration and upgrade of cultural monuments, historic sites and roads to tourist centers, scenic and historic areas; solidifying historical sites damaged by floods; relocating buildings, homes, restaurants, hotels under the risk caused by typhoons, floods and landslides. Transfer results to identify adaptation options for Tay Son District and Binh Dinh province Considering all proposed measures, specific measures and projects were analyzed in a matrix with multi-purpose criteria, such as economic, social, environmental performance, ability to integrate into other provincial plans. A total of 37 projects were analyzed. These priority projects were selected for detailed analyses and evaluations. The criteria used to evaluate include: urgency, quantitative results, multi-purpose, feasibility and sustainability. 30. 30 Research results in Binh Dinh have identified a list of projects to respond to climate change for the time frame up to 2020. Within the 37 projects proposed in the assessment, 6 priority projects were identified to focus on solving problems related to water resources such as management, protection and effective utilization of water resources, drought prevention, salt water intrusion, water shortage, flooding, riverbank erosion, coastal erosion and 1 project on sustainable agricultural development. 2.3.2 The adaptation measures for Binh Thuan Binh Thuan was selected to join the project. Binh Thuan has also developed and implemented its action plan to respond to climate change, proposed and piloted a number of measures to respond to climate change. The research results of climate change and sea level rise impact assessment on economic sectors and areas of Binh Thuan province within the CBCC project have provided advisory information to review proposed measures to respond to climate change and amend the master plan of the provincial socio-economic development to ensure long-term sustainability. The research results show that the issue of the most concern is water. The feasible response measures are technical and managerial processes, such as: Integrated water resources management (IWRM) for river basins and demand-driven IWRM for stakeholders; awareness raising on the impact of climate change; rational and safe use of surface and ground water resources; techniques for water saving; advanced irrigation; comprehensive water saving in agriculture - forestry - fishery, such as use of sprinkler and dripping techniques; upgrade, improvement and expansion of reservoirs with carefully designed plans; improvement of hydrological and river flow forecasting in the province to ensure safe operation of the reservoirs; development of a master plan for sustainable development of water resources with integration to socio-economic development plan of the province. First and foremost, priority is to review and develop reservoirs for irrigation and hydropower generation, and evaluate capacity of the system of reservoirs and dams to regulate water reserve and water supply in dry season while expanding the irrigation systems to reduce saltwater intrusion which may occur due to climate change.. The measures considered in the agricultural sectors are: changing horticultural structure to adapt to changing weather conditions; implementing selection and/or breeding processes of new plant species adaptive to climate change impacts; scheduling crop and planting agenda, especially to the changes in the start and end of rainy season in Binh Thuan; modernizing farming practices adaptive to climate change impacts; building livestock farms with modernized farming techniques; developing waste and wastewater disposal systems; evaluating crop yield; developing disaster warning, agricultural pests warning and developing information and communications systems; enhancing communication and environmental management capacity, raising awareness for local people on responding to climate change and sea level rise. Sound forest ecosystems are the solution to handle the risk of forest fires and the spread and development of forest pests. It includes: strengthening forest management and sustainable development, focusing on protecting natural forests; strengthening and restoration / planting forests, stopping deforestation to reduce the level of damage to the ecosystem and increase the coverage of forest; building and deploying systems for coastal mangrove forests, coastal sand dunes (recommended measures), and forest in the dyke project; develop programs on fire prevention, strengthen infrastructure facilities for forecasting, warning and fire control; develop and deploy REDD projects. The fisheries sector, measures include reviewing, amending plans for aquaculture in different ecological zones, taking into account the effects of climate change and sea 31. 31 level rise; strengthening fisheries management, including the system of lakes, boats, ports, terminals to adapt to the impacts of climate change, rising sea levels and natural disasters; promoting shelter establishments for fishing boats, enhancing research, forecasting movement of fish, fishery changes; developing freshwater fish in dams, lakes and ponds within the model of agro - forestry - fishery combination. Climate change has many negative effects on the transport system at present and in the future. To adapt to climate change and avoid the damage caused by natural disasters there are many different measures. The most notable are: mainstreaming climate change into strategies, plans and energy development plan; the provincial transportation development plan; impact assessment of climate change and sea level rise to the construction, design and planning of transportation systems now and in the future; consolidation of transportation facilities and power transmission systems in the hazard area with frequent floods; construction of the underground paths, bridges and traffic overflow system to ensure safety in all circumstances; identification of regions and areas at risk of erosion and slope areas at risk of flash floods in mountainous; early warning for timely evacuation; integrate climate change factors into consideration in planning seaports and warehouses in coastal areas or lowlands; expansion of bridges, culverts, causeways and raise the height if necessary to avoid flooding, in flooded areas raise the foundation combined with causeway to rescue people during the flood; and provide technical methods for erosion protection works. Adaptation measures for the energy sector are to integrate climate change issues into the strategic planning and energy development plan of the province; improve energy efficiency in stages of exploitation, production, distribution, transformation and use; improve and renovate the foundation works of the energy sector in the area susceptible to sea level rise and flooding threats; assessing potentials of hydroelectric, wind and solar energy in each district to develop exploitation plans. Transfer results to identify climate change adaptation plan for Phu Quy island district and Binh Thuan The infrastructure systems and technical basis of Binh Thuan tourism are mainly located in the coastal areas, making it one of the sectors most severely affected by climate change impacts, particularly sea level rise and coastal erosion. The necessary adaptation measures are: upgrading existing river dikes and sea walls; gradually 32. 32 expanding the dyke system in coastal areas, protecting key tourist areas to enhance investment in infrastructure and travel services suitable to adaptation policies and rising sea levels; promulgating rules and regulations for the management of major tourism centers; environmental standards in tourist sites in accordance with adaptation policy; organize climate change training for ecotourism guides, organizing seminars to exchange experience in developing environment friendly tourism and climate change adaptation. Climate change adversely affects human health, thus putting pressure on the health care sector. The measures are: developing green livelihoods and establishments in densely populated areas, raising awareness on hygiene and family culture; implementing programs and action plans on medical control for timely response and preventing spread of diseases; promoting research and disseminating information on climate change related diseases in the province; investing in infrastructure and additional equipment for prevention of natural disasters caused by climate change, information technology applications, communication networks to ensure seamless continuity at all time; enhancing the capacity of health care facilities in communities frequently affected by natural disasters; developing communication and education programmes to raise awareness and change behavior of public officials in the health sector; training and fostering of the ability to cope with the consequences caused by climate change; and enhancing rapid response capabilities. Livelihoods, poverty and gender: the poor are concentrated in rural and mountainous areas of Duc Linh, Tanh Linh and the coastal areas in Tuy Phong and Ham Tan. They become target to the risk of climate change. Therefore the measures should be to develop livelihoods, improve their lives, stabilize residences and establishments for people, develop projects and programs to minimize impacts to vulnerable groups with a focus on children, women and the elderly; mobilizing community participation, especially of women in mitigating and adapting to climate change and sea level rise. 2.3.3 The adaptation measures for Can Tho Identification of adaptation measures is the most important stage in the process of adaptation planning. Evaluation results for Can Tho City identified 14 measures to adapt for the three main sectors in the city of Can Tho, namely agriculture, aquaculture and infrastructure planning. An adaptive measure which can be applied to many areas and bring relatively high efficiency is awareness raising on climate change and the impacts of climate change and sea level rise on the livelihoods and socio-economic development. Some of these measures can be applied to the effects of climate change in the field of agriculture and fisheries, such as selection of plant varieties adaptive to flooding and droughts for the areas affected by climate change and sea level rise; research and planning of the production of food crops, vegetable crops, industrial crops to adapt to climate change in order to plan the areas for food and vegetables production to adapt to climate change impacts and saltwater intrusion to ensure stable agricultural production of the city; research on aqua-planting and elevated planting to avoid flood, development of social policies to support agricultural production affected by climate change, increase efficiency and reduce risks in agricultural production for households; food security forecast under the impacts of climate change to ensure food security for the city and the region. 33. 33 The most important issue in the fisheries sector is the regional planning for aquaculture production including adaptation to climate change: study and identify focus areas for concentrated farming to reduce the losses caused by climate change; selection of species with high economic efficiency and resistant to extreme weather conditions; planning and establishing concentrated aquaculture areas. Results from vulnerability assessments for 2020 and 2050 are as described earlier in this report; the effect of sea level rise to infrastructure in Can Tho is relatively high. The impacts are mainly on the roads, water supply and electricity supply network. However, current infrastructure planning of the city of Can Tho has not integrated the issues of climate change and sea level rise in order to adapt to changes in weather and climate, not only as an immediate measures but also long-term solutions. In order to serve the interests of economic development and long-term planning, the infrastructure needs to provide some adaptive solutions such as infrastructure planning and mapping, information provision to investors and management agencies; adjust planning, design and raise standards for construction works to increase resilience to climate change. The measures proposed will be analyzed and evaluated on the basis of selection criteria such as: urgency, social-economic efficiency, multi-purpose, flexibility, integrity to determine priorities. Of 14 measures for Can Tho, 7 measures are prioritized. One of the important evaluations for the measures to be applied in reality is cost- benefit analysis. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) consists of two related concepts of financial and economic analyses. Financial analysis involves only cash inflows and outflows of investors. Economic analysis is not only to calculate the cash inflows and outflows but is also related to the negative and positive impacts on social environment. For issues related to climate change it often makes use of economic analysis. The purpose of CBA is to understand the costs and benefits of society in general. In many cases CBA is highly effective to determine policies, such as through climate change scenarios, the costs and benefits for each scenario can be identified in terms of monetary value, from which policy makers can decide which options to opt for most effectively. Economic impact of the implementation of adaptation measures is determined by comparing the costs and benefits. The adaptation costs are expressed in monetary terms Figure 17. Vulnerability map due to floods in Can Tho in 2050 34. 34 including the investment costs (e.g., construction costs, clearance), operating and maintenance costs. Benefits of adaptation also include costs of damage avoided by applying adaptation measures. Transfer results to identify climate change adaptation plan for the city of Can Tho For instance, cost-benefit analysis for adaptation measures: “Adjusted infrastructure planning, building pilot resettlement in An Binh Ward for flood prevention”. The simplest cost-benefits analysis for each measure will include the construction costs, compensation, profit from creating landscapes; profit from reduced remediation costs from flooding, profit for improved people's lives etc. It is important to quantify the costs and profits as much as possible. The results: “Adjusted infrastructure planning, building pilot resettlement in An Binh Ward for flood prevention” indicate positive net present value (NPV), which means benefits are greater than costs. It should also be pointed out that this is only a simple calculation because the uncertainty of climate change poses challenges for decision makers to assess policy options and cost - benefits analysis. Further, in many cases the benefits of the project are difficult to quantify in monetary terms. Nevertheless, these results provide decision makers more insights about the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Research shows a tool for whether adaptation measures are appropriate to support policy decisions. Results of the cost-benefit analysis for five measures in the research in Can Tho can be used as reference when considering cost-benefit analyses for adaptation measures for other regions. The findings have been accepted and delivered for local use. Detailed results can be found in the final report "Identification of adaptation options and the impact of climate change in Can Tho City." 2.4 Case Study in the district Within the project’s activities, a number of pilot activities have been developed for the most affected areas by climate change such as coastal areas, islands and mountains. Tay Son district of Binh Dinh province was selected to represent mountains. Phu Quy island district of Binh Thuan province was selected to represent the coastal areas and islands. 35. 35 2.4.1 Tay Son district [6] Tay Son district has a complex terrain with high mountains and hills with plains interspersed and fragmented by large and small rivers in the region. Average annual rainfall is around 1,600 - 3,000 mm, distributed in different seasons. Rain falls mostly during the four months of the rainy season causing flooding and inundation. The dry season lasts eight months with low rainfall and drought causing damages to production and people lives. In the mountainous area with steep slopes, concentrated in the southwest area of the district and in some parts of the north within the communities of Tay Giang, Vinh An, Phu Tay, Binh Tuong, and Tay Xuan, the risk of flash floods is very high during the rainy season. In contrast, drought is a natural disaster causing enormous economic losses on crops. In Tay Son district, droughts usually occur from January to August. The findings are based on expert consultation methods, analysis and evaluation of a survey with participation of local authorities at all levels and communities. According to the research models, a fairly comprehensive picture of the current impacts of climate change and potential impacts on district socio-economic development has been drawn. For example, according to the A2 scenario, the 2040 average annual temperature will rise with 0.99°C, compared to the period of 1980-1999. In the mid-21st century, the average high and average low temperature will increase with about 1.7°C and reach up to an increase of 2.7°C by the end of the century. The major achievement of the research in Tay Son district is an assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability, therefore eliciting types of supports and adaptation measures to climate change for Tay Son District, Binh Dinh Province. In cooperation with other local agencies and organizations, the research also identified a list of priority activities and measures in order to develop detailed proposals for some priority projects. Assessment of climate change impacts in Tay Son district also includes impacts on natural resources and socio-economic development. In Tay Son district in particular and Binh Dinh province in general, changes in water resources and water-related disasters are major causes of losses for socio-economic development. Therefore, the adaptation measures proposed comprise of strengthening capacity in management of water resources used for production and domestic use. Eight priority projects have been identified with clear objectives and tasks to be integrated into an action plan to respond to climate change of Tay Son District or Binh Dinh Province. Proposed priority measures to adapt to climate change include: assessment of the situation and determination of the ability to respond to climate change in irrigation system in Tay Son district; planning infrastructure system for rural areas to prevent and mitigate natural disasters and improve capacity to adapt to climate change; upgrading water supply systems and production activities in the district to adapt to climate change and changes in water flows; develop sustainable development for forests to mitigate climate change impacts in Tay Son district; develop an adaptation model for communities in Tay Son district; develop communication activities on public health to respond to climate change impacts. The areas: water resources, biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, transportation, construction, tourism, public health and livelihoods of people in Tay Son District were reviewed and assessed by the project. Details can be found in the specialized report: climate change scenario for Tay Son district, assessment climate change impacts and vulnerability in Tay Son district, 36. 36 identification of measures to adapt to climate change (including the priority measures) for Tay Son district; and synthesis report of all research and assessments. 2.4.2 Phu Quy Island district [3] Phu Quy island district of Binh Thuan province comprises of six islands, named Phu Quy, Hon Tranh, Hon Trung in the south; Hon Do, Hon Den, Hon Giua in the north. Under the impact of climate change, changes in temperature, precipitation and extreme events caused great impacts on economic development and lives of people on the island. Assessment of impacts of climate change, sea level rise and extreme events on various sectors of economic development on the islands is necessary and will provide basic information to identify effective responses, minimize adverse impacts, and promote economic and social development in Phu Quy island district. The results of data analysis and assessment of climate changes in Phu Quy island district have confirmed changes in rainfall patterns, temperature changes and natural disasters negatively affecting economic production and life on the island. The average temperature, maximum and minimum temperatures are all increasing. The number of cool days reduces while that of hot days increases. Rainfall during the first decade of the 21st century appeared to reduce during the months of the dry season while it increased during the rainy season. The level of changes in rainfall between the months of the dry season is much higher than that of the rainy season. Sea level rise in Phu Quy averaged at 3mm/annum. By the end of the 21st century, sea levels could rise up to 82-100 cm in Phu Quy island. The findings are based on information of climate change scenarios, expert consultation methods, analysis and evaluation of the survey results with the actual participation of local authorities of the island, local community has also provided information on potential impacts of climate change on socio-economic development of the island. The key issues were discovered and focused on water resource issues, infrastructure development, coastal erosion, livelihoods for people, health care and public health, agriculture and fishery production and integrated management of coastal areas. Climate change affects seriously the water resources of the Phu Quy island district . According to research findings, rainfall increase during the rainy season and vice versa in the dry season caused significant changes in water resources, especially surface water resources. Due to the topography of the islands, the islands does not have surface flow; runoff water appears only on the slope when heavy rains occur. Rainfall decrease during dry season caused more severe water shortages. Total water shortage of the district is 353,100 m3. Groundwater: research results indicates that groundwater reserve on the island is at around 6.8 to 7.9 million m3, of which about 0.62 to 0.63 million m3 has been salinized, about 8.4% to 9.3% of the total reserve of groundwater on the island. Total reserve of fresh water on the island is around 6.08 to 7.28 million m3, accounting for 90.7 to 92.1% of total groundwater reserves on the island. Climate change and sea level rise impacts on the water balance of the island district’s economic development. Research results specify that, in 2020, the total water shortage of the island district is 531,900 m3 of which Thanh Tam community, the most affected with shortage of 213,400 m3, accounting for 40.1% of the district total water shortage. In the year 2050, Tam Thanh community will remain the community with the highest water shortage with 38.5% of the district total water shortage. 37. 37 Salinity is considered a serious issue as the total reserve of fresh water increase from 2020 to 2100 is 0.66% while the rate of salinity is larger: 1.22%. The assessment of climate change impacts in Phu Quy island district has evaluated impacts on people livelihoods in susceptible areas such as fishing, agriculture, services and tourism, of which fishing is regarded as the most vulnerable. Measures to adapt to climate change in Phu Quy island have been proposed on the basis of impact assessment of climate change and sea level rise on the environment, socio-economic development, literature review, expert consultation, participation of commune officials, Phu Quy island district and community interviews and focus group discussions. A number of adaptation measures has been proposed and analyzed. The measures focus on protection and effective use of water resources, biodiversity protection and exploitation of new energy sources. Six projects are identified as priority projects which can be incorporated into the climate change response plan of the district and province. Detailed reports for Phu Quy island include:  Climate change and sea level rise scenario for Phu Quy island district;  Assessment of current socio-economic development in Phu Quy island district;  Report on assessment of climate change impact on integrated coastal management in Phu Quy island district;  Set of maps for water balance and assessment of vulnerability and impacts of climate change and sea level rise in Phu Quy island district, especially people livelihoods;  Set of maps for water balance planning according to climate change and sea level rise scenarios (1/25.000) for Phu Quy island district;  Map for vulnerability to tropical cyclones for Phu Quy island (1/25.000); and Model for water resources management in Phu Quy island district . 3 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS With the goal of providing information to support local activities in responding to climate change, the project has implemented consultations with agencies and departments of the provinces to conduct detailed studies and assess the condition of climate change impacts. The results show rising temperatures, warming and sea level rise; natural disasters occur more frequently, more erratic and cause significant damages to production and lives. In the framework of the research activities in the province, the project completed detailed climate change scenarios for the three provinces of Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho city and two pilot districts of Tay Son district (Binh Dinh) and Phu Quy island district (Binh Thuan). For the goal of providing information on climate change to support local activities to respond to climate change, the project has also implemented impact assessment of climate change and sea level rise to determine the level of risk for economic sectors, sensitive areas of each province and district. The results of the assessment of impact of climate change on integrated management of coastal areas in Phu Quy district and water balance assessment for vulnerability and impacts of climate change, sea level rise, especially on the livelihoods of population are all important information to support the planning and climate change adaptation strategies. 38. 38 For Tay Son district, proposed priority measures to adapt to climate change include: assessment of the situation and determination of the ability to respond to climate change in irrigation systems in Tay Son district; planning for the infrastructure system for rural areas to prevent and mitigate natural disasters and improve capacity to adapt to climate change; upgrading water supply systems and production activities in the district to adapt to climate change and changes in water flows; develop sustainable development for forests to mitigate climate change impacts in Tay Son district; develop an adaptation model for communities in Tay Son district; develop communication activities on public health to respond to climate change impacts. The areas: water resources, biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, transportation, construction, tourism, public health and livelihoods of people in Tay Son District were reviewed and assessed by the project. Research results in Binh Dinh have identified that the sectors / areas most affected by climate change are: (i) agriculture and rural development, (ii) natural resources and environment, (iii) fisheries production and aquatic resources, (iv) medical and public health, (v) energy, construction and transport, and (vi) tourism. Each area is assessed with a detailed impact assessment process. Identifying targets for assessment was based on the impact assessment procedure and climate change scenarios for Binh Dinh. The studies also conducted a risk assessment of climate change on economic sectors and sensitive areas to recommend measures to adapt to and mainstream climate change into development planning of Binh Dinh. In Binh Thuan, climate change and sea level rise seriously affected economic sectors, natural systems, economic and social development in different areas of the province such as: Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries, Transport, Energy, tourism, public health, livelihoods and poverty, biodiversity and water resources in particular. Particularly in Can Tho, the effect of sea level rise on infrastructure is relatively serious. Affected targets include roads, water supply, and the electricity supply network. The infrastructure planning of the city has not integrated climate change and sea level rise issues to adapt to changes in extreme events. In order to serve the interests of economic development, long-term planning of infrastructure development should integrate adaptation measures to provide information to investors and management agencies to make adjustments to planning, standards and design of construction works to increase resilience to climate change One of the important evaluations for the measures to be applied is to assess costs and benefits. Results of the pilot "Adjust infrastructure planning and building pilot flood prevention for resettlement in An Binh Ward" has provided decision makers better insights on costs and benefits of adaptation measures. The results of the economic aspects of adaptation measures can assist in the policy decision making processes. The results of the study in the province will provide information to support the local development and implementation of activities to respond to climate change and sea level rise. Combined with communication activities, the project has achieved the goals to raise awareness and capacity to respond to climate change. The research results have been delivered for local use. The activities and achievements of the project are to support local communities in adjusting and building plans consistent with changing climate conditions in the future. At the same time, it is to enhance adaptive capacity of local people, from households to communities to key agencies at local level. 39. 39 On the basis of the results of the project activities and recommendations to the agency / unit managers and policy makers it can be concluded that they need to work closely with local people to develop comprehensive and effective measures to cope with climate change, including organizing training courses, workshops to raise awareness on impacts of climate change and appropriate measures to effectively apply the results of the project in practice. On the basis of the project operations, Provincial People's Committees and leaders of relevant departments should consider carefully the guidelines for policy development framework for adaptation and to make adjustments during the development, implementation and monitoring of strategies and plans to respond to climate change. It is essential to enhance mobilization of financial investment from both domestic and international financing sources in cooperation with implementation of priority projects mentioned above to adapt to impacts of climate change towards successful implementation of the economic development goals in the harsh and quick changing climate. Line departments and economic sectors in the province need to review research findings on impacts of climate change on their sector to integrate adaptation measures into the program and projects to realize activities to respond to climate change. Line departments and economic sectors need to review strategies and socio- economic development plans of each area / sector for the province as a whole and other issues related to climate change in order to limit risks during the implementation process. 40. 40 REFERENCES 1. Report assessing the impact of climate change on integrated management of coastal Phu Quy; 2. Map index of vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise for Phu Quy island by storm rate (1/25.000); 3. Synthesis report findings Phu Quy 4. Report assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change in Tay Son District. 5. Report assessing the risks and impacts of climate change on key areas, sensitive areas and vulnerability in Binh Thuan; 6. Report assessing the risks and impacts of climate change on the planning and economic development planning stages in Binh Thuan province; 7. Report analysis and evaluation of strategic planning, economic development plans of the Binh Thuan provincial society in the context of climate change. 8. Synthesis report findings Binh Thuan 9. Report assessing the risks and impacts of climate change on key areas, sensitive areas and vulnerability of Binh Dinh Province. 10. Report assessing the risks and impacts of climate change on the planning and economic development planning stages in Binh Dinh province. 11. Report analysis and evaluation of strategic planning, economic development plan of the province of Binh Dinh society in context of climate change. 12. Synthesis report findings consultations to identify adaptation options and prevention of climate change impacts for the province of Binh Dinh 13. Assessment Report of extreme weather events in the past and detailed climate change scenarios and sea level rise for the city of Can Tho 14. Synthesis report findings Can Tho 15. The adaptation and mitigation of GHG emissions and the list of priority projects for Binh Dinh. 16. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 17. Assessing the impact of climate change, sea level rise on the planning and socio-economic development in Can Tho 18. Climate change and sea level rise scenario for Vietnam, 2009 19. Climate change and sea level rise scenario for Vietnam, 2012 20. Scenarios of climate change and sea level rise for Binh Dinh, 2011 21. Scenarios of climate change and sea level rise for Binh Thuan, 2011 22. Scenarios of climate change and sea level rise for the city of Can Tho, 2011 23. Identification of measures to adapt to climate change based on the results of field impact assessment, the vulnerability of climate change 41. 41 24. Guidelines "Assessment of climate change impacts and identify adaptation measures" IHME, 2012 25. Vietnam’s First National Communication on Climate Change, 2003 26. Vietnam’s Second National Communication on Climate, 2010 27. IPCC (2007), The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press 28. WMO, UNEP (2001), Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press 42. 42

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