Integrated climate indices for risk assessment of extreme events

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Integrated climate indices for risk assessment of extreme events. Roxana Bojariu Nationala Meteorological Administration bojariu@meteoromania.ro. Outline. Risk assessment Heat waves in urban area Hail risk case Follow up. Risk assessment. Natural hazard assessment and mapping - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Integrated climate indices for risk assessment of extreme eventsRoxana BojariuNationala Meteorological Administrationbojariu@meteoromania.ro

  • OutlineRisk assessmentHeat waves in urban area Hail risk caseFollow up

  • Risk assessmentNatural hazard assessment and mappingImpact assesment and mappingCombining (1) and (2) to get the risk assessment and mapping

  • Location of Arad and its districts

  • Observed heat waves at Arad meteorological station station

    Number of consecutive days with Tmax >=35 C and Tmax >= 37 C

    Chart2

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    tmax>=37C

    tmax>=35C

    hetawaves in Arad

    Heat-wave definition in Romanian legislation: 2 consecutive days with tmax>=37C.

    Arad heatwaves

    yearmonthintervaltmax_valno. daysyearmonthintervaltmax_valno.days

    1992821-2237.421985729-3137.03

    2000819-2239.141987719-2136.33

    2007717-2239.961987723-2436.62

    2008814-1538.52198876-738.32

    201179-1037.821988724-2535.22

    201275-638.021988815-1637.02

    2012823-2538.33199289-1037.02

    1992819-2237.44

    1992826-3037.55

    1994629-3036.52

    199481-235.82

    1994810-1137.52

    199883-436.22

    2000613-1437.42

    2000622-2336.52

    200073-438.62

    2000725-2636.62

    2000813-1435.42

    2000817-2239.15

    200189-1037.02

    2002622-2437.43

    2004719-2236.04

    2005730-3136.62

    2007716-2239.97

    2007823-2437.92

    2008713-1435.42

    2008813-1538.53

    200896-736.92

    200982-335.42

    201178-1137.84

    2011713-1537.03

    2011718-1936.22

    2011823-2537.43

    201271-938.09

    201285-637.12

    2012821-2638.36

    heatwave tendency in Arad

    tmax>=37C

    1973019730

    1974019740

    1975019750

    1976019760

    1977019770

    1978019780

    1979019790

    1980019800

    1981019810

    1982019820

    1983019830

    1984019840

    1985319850

    1986019860

    1987219870

    1988219880

    1989019890

    1990019900

    1991019910

    1992519922

    1993019930

    1994219940

    1995019950

    1996019960

    1997019970

    1998219980

    1999019990

    2000520004

    2001220010

    2002320020

    2003020030

    2004420040

    2005220050

    2006020060

    2007720075

    2008320082

    2009220090

    2010020100

    2011420112

    2012920123

    heatwave tendency in Arad

    tmax>=37C

    tmax>=35C

    Sheet3

  • Urban heat island case natural hazard mappingUrban heat island intensity in summer derived using daytime and nighttime LST averaged over summers of 2002-2010 from Aqua MODIS product with 1km resolution.

  • Urban heat island case impact mappingDaytime abd nighttime impact maps derived using the number of paramedic interventions per districts in the summers 2009-2012. (Data from Inspectorate for Emergency Situations Vasile Goldis, Arad, Romania.

  • Urban heat island case an example of risk mappingSEERISK project risk mapping for disaster management community no new science development but the framework to transfer of science to disaster management community. A risk map is now developed on qualitative base; our scientific aim is to develop a quantitative base for risk assessment of heat waves in urban areas.

  • Further steps for a quantitative assessment of heat wave risks in urban areas Daytime LST and Tair for location of meteorological station in Arad

    Chart2

    24.82002

    19.72002

    16.12002

    222002

    25.22002

    21.62002

    27.82002

    25.62002

    29.52002

    24.82002

    20.92002

    24.72002

    27.32002

    30.22002

    31.62002

    33.42002

    28.92002

    28.82002

    31.42002

    332002

    34.82002

    35.32002

    35.82002

    37.42002

    34.52002

    27.52002

    292002

    32.62002

    29.12002

    25.92002

    292002

    32.32002

    37.32002

    34.635.49

    27.639.06

    29.22002

    29.72002

    30.82002

    32.744.28

    34.92002

    372002

    34.92002

    36.22002

    33.82002

    34.62002

    372002

    33.32002

    28.22002

    20.72002

    25.72002

    2931.39

    27.62002

    26.732.07

    30.82002

    27.42002

    25.62002

    28.32002

    31.733.82

    29.72002

    26.22002

    29.52002

    292002

    30.82002

    30.92002

    32.62002

    27.42002

    29.72002

    26.32002

    22.42002

    22.52002

    27.42002

    26.62002

    25.822.15

    19.52002

    20.32002

    23.72002

    25.12002

    27.630.66

    29.22002

    30.131.96

    24.32002

    27.129.21

    2727.74

    28.82002

    29.532.78

    302002

    30.230.8

    2830.03

    29.832.11

    28.82002

    29.131.18

    27.82002

    28.62003

    25.92003

    26.62003

    3036.01

    31.639.63

    33.140.51

    32.62003

    33.12003

    33.82003

    3342.21

    34.642.37

    34.443.83

    35.544.28

    32.738.91

    28.72003

    28.42003

    27.239.84

    30.536.43

    27.12003

    28.62003

    25.634.41

    26.534.41

    31.22003

    34.42003

    30.926.94

    28.12003

    27.62003

    28.641.25

    31.843.78

    31.12003

    35.52003

    32.92003

    32.946.95

    29.52003

    25.32003

    26.223.53

    25.32003

    25.826.73

    27.22003

    25.92003

    24.726.35

    29.440.37

    26.12003

    23.72003

    28.82003

    32.62003

    34.12003

    302003

    30.545.95

    32.62003

    33.72003

    35.62003

    34.12003

    30.62003

    28.92003

    28.82003

    31.82003

    34.537.39

    30.12003

    24.52003

    25.82003

    31.42003

    33.22003

    33.72003

    32.32003

    33.939.21

    332003

    30.242.19

    31.243.15

    31.62003

    322003

    28.839.08

    29.237.8

    33.62003

    37.82003

    31.82003

    292003

    32.92003

    37.42003

    342003

    30.442.4

    32.52003

    34.32003

    35.643.05

    32.644.83

    28.542.54

    29.637.41

    31.82003

    33.62003

    36.140.28

    32.12003

    29.22003

    26.12004

    23.72004

    21.72004

    232004

    21.32004

    20.62004

    24.628.89

    25.72004

    28.32004

    25.930.12

    28.42004

    26.429.39

    23.921.53

    24.922.75

    26.231.99

    25.22004

    24.131.63

    26.627.2

    29.130.73

    29.62004

    25.428.45

    25.629.92

    28.433.43

    28.22004

    30.832.55

    25.62004

    26.92004

    30.22004

    26.82004

    25.22004

    28.835.2

    252004

    25.933.67

    28.731.28

    32.137.14

    33.435.25

    29.935.1

    34.535.79

    37.52004

    32.136.44

    282004

    24.52004

    25.82004

    23.42004

    23.516.97

    27.22004

    31.637.33

    33.538.89

    3643.63

    362004

    35.82004

    35.440.17

    34.940.93

    31.938.41

    33.42004

    26.92004

    22.12004

    16.32004

    20.42004

    222004

    242004

    27.926.8

    292004

    27.830.74

    27.930.1

    29.528.53

    29.634.73

    29.125.45

    28.130.63

    27.92004

    2728.64

    29.92004

    32.431.76

    29.130.49

    25.12004

    252004

    27.332.37

    29.433.17

    31.232.73

    33.331.69

    34.237.83

    31.92004

    26.72004

    24.72004

    26.73

    29.62004

    31.22004

    18.22004

    24.62004

    2830.06

    29.22004

    30.92004

    21.52005

    2230.11

    24.930.3

    27.234.85

    24.12005

    24.62005

    23.92005

    18.32005

    14.52005

    12.72005

    20.216.83

    23.721.85

    25.729.93

    27.92005

    29.82005

    30.333.09

    29.132.07

    27.32005

    242005

    25.22005

    25.630.37

    28.735.93

    25.32005

    28.535.57

    292005

    32.137.51

    2833.52

    30.332.09

    31.538.15

    28.22005

    30.52005

    25.82005

    22.12005

    28.233.81

    28.52005

    24.530.44

    25.92005

    29.12005

    272005

    25.623.29

    25.92005

    22.62005

    24.92005

    26.82005

    28.433.32

    29.82005

    30.335.95

    31.22005

    30.42005

    26.934.45

    25.128.36

    28.635.98

    252005

    26.42005

    29.631.51

    32.537.43

    32.92005

    34.72005

    34.840.51

    36.238.43

    36.62005

    31.52005

    32.641.18

    33.72005

    28.42005

    21.62005

    232005

    23.22005

    18.72005

    22.72005

    26.62005

    28.125.17

    24.92005

    272005

    26.632.03

    27.52005

    20.82005

    20.92005

    23.22005

    24.92005

    26.628.24

    272005

    252005

    23.22005

    22.32005

    23.62005

    27.42005

    27.82005

    27.92005

    26.62005

    28.326.17

    29.52005

    19.42006

    16.12006

    14.82006

    15.52006

    15.92006

    21.216.03

    17.52006

    18.22006

    21.726.69

    19.22006

    22.922.19

    24.42006

    24.227.28

    23.226.75

    23.82006

    28.830.56

    30.227.8

    31.332.35

    31.233.19

    30.92006

    29.531.73

    31.229.31

    28.428.96

    292006

    31.433.01

    3230.14

    34.634.65

    31.82006

    32.334.65

    28.22006

    24.52006

    24.72006

    24.52006

    26.529.96

    29.331.17

    30.933.68

    31.135.06

    31.532.65

    31.135.23

    30.82006

    30.834.83

    31.22006

    30.733.39

    30.92006

    26.12006

    23.72006

    25.423.85

    27.834.78

    31.832.61

    34.139.91

    34.534.1

    33.936.5

    32.42006

    33.834.02

    33.837.45

    32.832.87

    33.637.93

    34.535.01

    33.736.92

    29.428.69

    30.82006

    32.72006

    26.22006

    27.52006

    24.32006

    20.62006

    25.62006

    25.62006

    25.62006

    24.62006

    25.92006

    23.52006

    26.42006

    26.32006

    24.725.86

    26.52006

    28.730.57

    31.233.42

    322006

    32.433.93

    33.829.47

    27.22006

    25.926.05

    23.22006

    26.431.37

    27.52006

    25.12006

    27.127.61

    19.72006

    19.72006

    15.12006

    162006

    20.22007

    24.62007

    28.732.46

    30.22007

    29.42007

    28.52007

    29.632.88

    30.22007

    30.72007

    3136.77

    26.92007

    29.232.64

    30.22007

    30.235.41

    31.533.18

    28.228.21

    29.937.24

    29.92007

    30.12007

    32.92007

    33.640.08

    3235.01

    28.528.17

    29.836.76

    34.335.82

    32.741.7

    27.12007

    24.22007

    26.324.29

    27.52007

    30.22007

    33.538.41

    30.22007

    30.62007

    23.42007

    24.52007

    27.32007

    28.330.18

    33.441.05

    29.334.47

    17.52007

    22.82007

    26.32007

    30.332.51

    33.536.79

    35.743.03

    37.344.02

    38.945.83

    39.747.37

    39.92007

    39.245.83

    38.938.12

    34.344.03

    40.240.86

    32.637.04

    29.243.23

    3242.56

    35.146.83

    31.62007

    28.32007

    25.22007

    27.32007

    29.541.69

    3240.41

    282007

    27.62007

    29.52007

    31.12007

    32.443

    33.62007

    32.239.57

    27.92007

    24.12007

    26.32007

    29.931.01

    31.539.04

    33.537.99

    34.941.57

    27.52007

    31.231.33

    32.12007

    31.530.41

    33.835.98

    37.92007

    36.839.04

    34.32007

    30.635.86

    31.839.83

    31.32007

    29.337.88

    25.32007

    23.82007

    26.52008

    28.731.01

    26.734.77

    28.426.07

    24.727.35

    18.62008

    23.32008

    252008

    27.330.84

    28.72008

    28.52008

    25.422.35

    21.32008

    21.22008

    192008

    23.828.11

    27.42008

    25.62008

    26.12008

    28.82008

    3034.3

    3231.53

    34.337.64

    33.832.53

    31.734.12

    32.131.05

    28.82008

    28.333.87

    302008

    31.12008

    29.131.66

    29.533.79

    30.736.37

    282008

    27.333.6

    28.632.01

    3438.77

    29.92008

    26.333.85

    26.72008

    3138.38

    34.243.25

    35.22008

    35.435.41

    29.12008

    26.22008

    30.42008

    27.32008

    28.133.89

    32.238.75

    27.92008

    22.42008

    20.119.27

    23.42008

    23.92008

    25.72008

    29.429.31

    30.127.53

    30.72008

    322008

    31.42008

    32.135.8

    32.532.65

    32.836.56

    33.137.36

    30.62008

    28.936.88

    29.932.4

    33.239.87

    272008

    25.12008

    28.230.89

    32.936.73

    35.239.59

    37.240.26

    38.540.71

    30.22008

    25.32008

    27.531.51

    29.638.4

    34.840.53

    32.42008

    35.242.23

    33.42008

    26.52008

    24.52008

    27.331.32

    29.834.02

    29.72008

    25.22008

    22.82008

    24.42008

    18.82009

    17.42009

    23.225.64

    20.42009

    22.72009

    27.22009

    30.431.19

    29.335.73

    31.534.27

    3241.19

    27.82009

    23.227.57

    22.832.53

    27.434.69

    30.42009

    31.42009

    27.140.48

    29.32009

    30.841.23

    30.32009

    28.12009

    19.62009

    23.22009

    25.531.11

    26.12009

    24.52009

    25.72009

    25.82009

    2931.79

    26.32009

    29.62009

    27.82009

    29.935.35

    28.82009

    30.937.26

    31.32009

    26.92009

    26.82009

    26.52009

    27.736

    23.22009

    25.42009

    28.828.67

    32.838.28

    34.840.56

    35.22009

    34.131.33

    34.833.89

    29.72009

    27.32009

    30.139.65

    32.939.48

    34.840.23

    34.743.72

    32.331.99

    27.52009

    28.22009

    32.544.08

    31.834.77

    3443.28

    33.72009

    33.72009

    35.12009

    35.440.29

    32.52009

    28.92009

    27.12009

    28.22009

    29.531.18

    29.538.01

    28.52009

    28.42009

    27.827.81

    29.737.88

    25.72009

    28.52009

    31.641.21

    32.131.63

    342009

    30.137.03

    3042.81

    32.62009

    33.341.36

    27.52009

    27.236.56

    31.340.56

    33.338.49

    34.543.77

    32.434.07

    34.744.38

    28.12009

    27.12009

    142010

    16.62010

    18.52010

    16.12010

    23.12010

    26.528.48

    2928.4

    3031.62

    31.633.41

    31.230.35

    32.231.87

    3329.53

    32.333.43

    31.424.25

    29.529.61

    26.42010

    26.52010

    27.12010

    26.22010

    26.328.69

    24.92010

    18.92010

    20.22010

    21.52010

    22.72010

    18.62010

    20.72010

    27.12010

    26.82010

    29.32010

    30.52010

    29.632.72

    31.231.83

    262010

    27.22010

    28.426.17

    24.22010

    24.424.98

    26.529.43

    28.530.91

    31.434.18

    31.62010

    32.12010

    33.320.99

    33.438.25

    34.42010

    34.62010

    33.22010

    30.82010

    31.42010

    3327.43

    34.534.5

    34.431.19

    30.831.03

    20.32010

    212010

    22.72010

    20.92010

    27.729.09

    3027.99

    30.32010

    29.12010

    31.233.71

    33.331.35

    27.92010

    29.12010

    30.32010

    2728.37

    26.32010

    27.228.64

    28.431.53

    29.831.95

    33.528.99

    34.52010

    34.335.46

    35.22010

    342010

    27.826.99

    26.12010

    28.431.63

    26.530.53

    28.234

    30.131.47

    30.736.42

    33.235.55

    27.42010

    29.233.65

    35.236.51

    25.72010

    23.42010

    23.32010

    17.62010

    arad-obs-lstday

    200224.811.43.847.712.50.6768996856

    200219.78.43.235.18.8

    200216.18.64.8278.4

    20022210.238.410.3

    200225.210.54810.8

    200221.614.912511

    200227.816.249.413.9

    200225.614.142.413.2

    200229.514.24813.6

    200224.816.519.824.816.2

    200220.915.23127.515

    200224.713.336.611.6

    200227.311.351.411.4

    200230.214.35214

    200231.615.85114.2

    200233.417.56017.5

    200228.919.951.818.2

    200228.816.75216

    200231.414.160.612.5

    20023316.661.715.6

    200234.817.765.418.5

    200235.318.462.418.4

    200235.818.864.818.8

    200237.420.258.619.6

    200234.518.649.918.6

    200227.515.51.453.414.8

    20022912.957.510.9

    200232.613.246.712.7

    200229.115.99.43717.2

    200225.99.3519.4

    2002299.553.59.2

    200232.315.448.114.6

    200237.320.553.719

    200234.618.44.251.519.635.49

    200227.611.40.651.411.639.06

    200229.216.946.817.2

    200229.718.84.442.519.5

    200230.817.753.617.4

    200232.716.757.515.944.28

    200234.917.859.217

    20023719.463.720.4

    200234.918.759.519.4

    200236.218.962.318.8

    200233.820.753.221.3

    200234.618.259.520.2

    20023721.553.321.8

    200233.318.31.457.717.8

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