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Gerald spreitzhofer

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  • 1. Ultra-high resolution weather predictions for the Himalayas, using MetGIS technologies Dr. Gerald Spreitzhofer CEO, MetGIS GmbH, Vienna, Austria University of Vienna, Inst. for Meteorology
  • 2. Problem: Lack of accuracy over mountains 2. XXXXXXXXX Conventional Weather Forecasts:
  • 3. • Decrease of risk of accidents • Planning of resources • Cost reduction for traffic operation centers and other weather-dependent institutions Improved forecasts important for:
  • 4. Approach: MetGIS Weather observations High-resolution terrain databases (GIS-data) MetGIS forecasts Meteorological forecast models (Met.-data) Limit of conventional forecasts
  • 5. Santiago de Chile Boulder, USA WSL/SLF Vienna, Austria Nagaoka, Japan Mendoza, Argentina Alden/WELS DGF, Univ.de Chile CRICYT/IANIGLA NIED/NISIS IMG, Univ.Vienna Davos, Switzerland Lima, Peru SENAMHI • More then 10 years of international development efforts • Combines specific expertise in meteorology, snow science, GIS and software engineering Base of MetGIS Moscow, Russia Mosc. State Univ.
  • 6. Research Projects (basic and applied science): • Cordination by University of Vienna Operational application of MetGIS (Vienna): • Processed by MetGIS GmbH • First customer 2007, currently users in 10 countries Cordination of MetGIS Developments
  • 7. Forecasts are computed in forecast center of MetGIS in Vienna Users access the forecasts via internet (e.g. www.metgis.com). Vienna, Austria Forecast Access
  • 8. GIS •Terrain: 30 m resolution •Vector data: boundaries, rivers, roads, etc. Global and Regional Met. Forecast Models • default models: GFS + WRF • Plugin of other models possible MetGIS-Downscaling •Refinement of meteorological forecast through interaction with terrain model MetGIS Web Interface (www.metgis.com) •Customized interface for applied users •Only most important information •Operational since 2006/07 winter season, Forecast Production Process
  • 9. Extensión de los pronósticos • In realtime: ultra-high-resolution forecasts for 2oo regions world-wide • 8 languages (English, French, Spanish, Italian, German, Slowenian, Russian, Japanese) MetGIS: World-wide Forecast Coverage Antarctic Peninsula Southern Africa Vinson Massif Lakes Region Central Chile/Arg. Peru Mexico Colombia Alaska British Colombia California Colorado Bolivia Eastern Africa Morocco Central Europe UK Greenland Scandinavia Turkey Caucasus SE Australia New Zealand Iran Central Asia Himalaya Tienshan Eastern Asia Kamchatka
  • 10. Bhutan Western Bhutan, BHU Sikkim, IND Mt. Everest, NEP Nepal Annapurna, NEP Uttarakhand, IND Northern India Central Tibet Manali, IND Srinagar, IND K2, PAK Karakoram Highway, PAK Forecast Coverage: Himalaya Khumbu, NEP Nanga Parbat, PAK
  • 11. Ultra-high-resolution forecast, several updates per day! MetGIS Web Interface (www.metgis.com) Forecast example:
  • 12. www.metgis.com Example: fresh snow forecast map for Portillo (Chile) Retrieval of exact forecast values
  • 13. www.metgis.com 4cm: 3hr-Snowfall until Su, 00 UTC Numerical values are always visible beside mouse cursor! MetGIS Web Interface: www.metgis.comFresh Snow Forecast: Portillo (Chile)Fresh Snow Forecast: Portillo (Chile)
  • 14. www.metgis.com 8cm: 3hr-Snwofall until Su, 00 UTC Retrieval of exact forecast values
  • 15. 13 cm: 3hr-Snwofall until Su, 00 UTC Retrieval of exact forecast values
  • 16. www.metgis.com 7-day point forecasts always pop up when clicking the mouse over specific points Portillo Point Forecasts
  • 17. www.metgis.com Portillo Example of 7-day point forecast
  • 18. Nepal snowstorm disaster • 14th of October 2014 • More than 1m of snow in high elevations • Around 50 dead people in the Annapurna and Dhaulagiri regions MetGIS Forecast Example
  • 19. Himalaya Precip. Forecast, 13/14 Oct 2014
  • 20. Annapurna Snow Forecast, 13/14 Oct 2014
  • 21. Annapurna Snow Forecast, 13/14 Oct 2014
  • 22. Pronósticos lineales 13 Oct 2014, 03 UTC MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La, 13/14 Oct 2014
  • 23. Pronósticos linealesMetGIS Forecast, Thorong La 13 Oct 2014, 09 UTC
  • 24. Pronósticos linealesMetGIS Route Forecasts 13 Oct 2014, 12 UTC MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La
  • 25. Pronósticos linealesMetGIS Route Forecast 14 Oct 2014, 12 UTC MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La
  • 26. Pronósticos linealesMetGIS Route Forecast 14 Oct 2014, 15 UTC MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La
  • 27. Pronósticos linealesMetGIS Route Forecast 14 Oct 2014, 21 UTC MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La
  • 28. Pronósticos linealesMetGIS Route Forecast 15 Oct 2014, 00 UTC MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La
  • 29. Recent MetGIS Developments 1. APIs (Application Programming Interfaces): Realtime MetGIS forecast data can be included in other systems (no need to use MetGIS Web Interface!) 2. Fully zoomable forecast maps (currently only for the Alps)
  • 30. Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow
  • 31. Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow
  • 32. Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow
  • 33. Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow
  • 34. Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow Edelweißspitze (2572m) 12 cm 8 cm 6 cm 2 cm 0,5 cm
  • 35. Station: Schmittenhöhe (1953 m), Austria Period: winter 2011/2012 Forecast Range (Days) 1 2 3 4 5 % of forecasts with errors < 1 deg 60,9 56,1 43,2 36,7 28,6 % of forecasts with errors < 2 deg 86,2 82,4 75,9 60,1 53,5 % of forecasts with errors < 3 deg 95,8 95,8 91,2 79,9 72,3 Mean absolute error (deg) 1,03 1,15 1,36 1,82 2,32 Correlation coefficient 0,98 0,98 0,97 0,95 0,90 Temperature Forecast Verification
  • 36. Snowfall observed at Los Pelambres Depth of observed fresh snow [cm] Depth of fresh snow forecast by MetGIS [cm]From (start time) Until (end time) 2009-05-29 09:00 2009-05-30 00:00 9 6 2009-06-28 04:30 2009-06-30 03:00 103 87 2009-07-14 11:00 2009-07-15 07:00 12 21 2009-07-21 07:00 2009-07-22 13:00 55 53 2009-07-31 23:00 2009-08-01 04:00 4 1 2009-08-15 03:00 2009-08-16 04:00 51 89 2009-08-17 19:00 2009-08-19 11:00 44 92 2009-09-06 10:00 2009-09-06 23:30 4 3 2009-09-07 03:30 2009-09-07 12:00 6 5 Most important snowstorms hitting the station Los Pelambres (Chile) during a winter season. Fresh Snow Forecast Verification
  • 37. Usuarios • Traffic operation centers • Ski and avalanche control centers • Tourism • Open-pit mining industry • State meteorological services • Private users: Everybody involved in outdoor activities (mainly Europe): hikers, skiers, climbers, bikers, etc. Typical Users of MetGIS Forcasts
  • 38. • MetGIS used in Himalaya Kingdom of Bhutan since 2011 • Implemented through project of Austrian Devel. Agency Bhutan: State Meteorological Service MetGIS training class for Bhutan meteorologists
  • 39. • MetGIS used by SASE (Snow and Avalanche Study Est.) since 2010 • Forecasts for Indian Himalayas (including WRF model) • Drive simulation models of the snow cover. India: Government of India
  • 40. • MetGIS is a unique forecast system with specific skills for mountain weather forecasts (most NWS: no particular experience in this field!) • World-wide successful application, incl. Himalayas (India, Bhutan) Nepal: • MetGIS fully operational, several updates per day • MetGIS could be used for several purposes (operational forecasting and research, driving hydrological models, etc.) Summary and Conclusions
  • 41. Thank you for your attention! For more information:  Visit www.metgis.com  Himalaya: www.metgis.com/en/re gions/himalaya/
  • 42. MetGIS
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